Authors: Phuong Thao Thi Ngo, Tien Dat Pham, Nhat Duc Hoang, Dang An Tran, Mahdis Amiri, Thu Trang Le, Pham Viet Hoa, Phong Van Bui, Viet Ha Nhu, Dieu Tien Bui
Published in: Journal of Environmental Management, volume 280, 111858
Published year: 2020
Category: ISI paper
Abstract
Flash flood is one of the most dangerous hydrologic and natural phenomena and is considered as the top ranking of such events among various natural disasters due to their fast onset characteristics and the proportion of individual fatalities. Mapping the probability of flash flood events remains challenges because of its complexity and rapid onset of precipitation. Thus, this study aims to propose a state-of-the-art data mining approach based on a hybrid equilibrium optimized SysFor, namely, the HE-SysFor model, for spatial prediction of flash floods. A tropical storm region located in the Northwest areas of Vietnam is selected as a case study. For this purpose, 1866 flash-flooded locations and ten indicators were used. The results show that the proposed HE-SysFor model yielded the highest predictive performance (total accuracy = 93.8%, Kappa index = 0.875, F1-score = 0.939, and AUC = 0.975) and produced the better performance than those of the C4.5 decision tree (C4.5), the radial basis function-based support vector machine (SVM-RBF), the logistic regression (LReg), and deep learning neural network (DeepLNN) models in both the training and the testing phases. Among the ten indicators, elevation, slope, and land cover are the most important. It is concluded that the proposed model provides an alternative tool and may help for effectively monitoring flash floods in tropical areas and robust policies for decision making in mitigating the flash flood impacts.
English